Photo : Maxim Shemetov/Reuters/FT
Photo : Maxim Shemetov/Reuters/FT
War in Ukraine: Day 706
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 30 January, Ukraine’s air force reported on shooting down 15 Shahed drones out of 35 launched by Russia. According to the report, Russia had launched missiles in the directions of “Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, the Russian city of Kursk, and Cape Chauda in occupied Crimea.” The attacks mainly targeted frontline, energy infrastructure, civilian and military facilities.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 30 January, the TASS reported on data collected from the Russian military transport plan. According to the report, the aircraft was shot down “intentionally.” It carried 65 Ukrainian servicemen, six crew members, and three Russian soldiers who dies in the crash. As the investigation continues, sources from the Russian security services confirmed to TASS that the plan was subject to “external influence.”
On 30 January, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister criticised the west for attempting to ask other countries to transfer Russia made weapons to Ukraine. Citing Ukraine’s increased demands for more military weapons, he stated how the West is trying to convince to send Russian supplied weapons to Ukraine to other countries.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 30 January, the EU member countries agreed unanimously on a plan to allocate billions of Euros from the profits resulting from the freezing of the assets of Russia’s central bank. This move comes as a first steps towards Ukraine’s reconstruction ahead of the planned summit on 01 February. Out of the EUR 260 billion foreign reserves of Russia gathered in 2022, EUR 191 billion remains in Belgium’s Euroclear security depository. These reserves have now turned billions as they mature and reinvested. As per the agreement signed, the profits raised by the Euroclear will not be paid out until the EU proceeds to setup a “financial contribution to the [EU] budget that shall be raised on these net profits to support Ukraine.”
On 30 January, Politico reported on Emmanuel Macron’s statement during his visit to Sweden urging European countries to offer support to Ukraine regardless of the US decision. Similar to Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor, Macron said that Europe “should not delegate security,” but must act decisive to defend Ukraine. In the upcoming European Council summit on 01 February, the EU intends to declare a aid package worth EUR 50 billion for Ukraine and Macron is expected to sign a deal on air defence cooperation with Sweden.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 30 January, Financial Times reported on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) prediction on Russia’s economy for 2024. According to the IMF, economy is expected to expand faster than 2023 and forecasts an increase to 2.6 per cent in 2024, which is double the earlier prediction in October 2023. According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist said: “It is definitely the case that the Russian economy has been doing better than we were expecting and many others were expecting.” The reason behind the performance was “strong stimulus” given by the government combined with “firm commodity prices,” but in the long run the growth of Russian economy is expected to be lower than pre-war period.
On 30 January, Financial Times reported on increased Brazilian imports of Russian diesel in 2023. According to the report, the purchase of fuel oil rose by 400 per cent with a USD 8.6 billion and a 6000 per cent increase in diesel with a USD 4.5 billion boost to Russian economy. This makes Brazil the largest buyer superseding Turkey in purchasing diesel. When questioned, Brazil’s development, industry and foreign trade ministry stated that the increased imports were due to “decisions made by private agents and follow the logic of supply and demand.”
References
Martin Fornusek, “Air Force: Ukraine downs 15 of 35 Russian attack drones launched overnight,” The Kyiv Independent, 30 January 2024
“Black box data confirms plane carrying Ukrainian POWs was shot down – TASS,” RT, 30 January 2024
“West asking countries to secretly send Russian weapons to Ukraine – Lavrov,” RT, 30 January 2024
Sam Fleming, Claire Jones and Max Seddon, “IMF raises Russia growth outlook as war boosts economy,” Financial Times, 30 January 2024
Bryan Harris, “Brazil’s imports of Russian oil products soar,” Financial Times, 30 January 2024
Paola Tamma, “EU agrees to set aside profits from frozen Russian assets,” Financial Times, 30 January 2024
Clea Caulcutt And Laura Kayali, “Macron: ‘Whatever America decides,’ Europe must back Ukraine,” Politico, 30 January 2024